Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 32.906285 35.489887 38.317606 41.669060 45.569030 50.010562 55.520846
2025-09-14 29.079236 32.354510 36.150344 40.955252 47.000114 54.540014 64.990044
2025-09-21 26.217179 29.683261 33.833768 39.298053 46.517165 56.084234 70.443014
2025-09-28 24.615750 28.282906 32.798719 38.953206 47.455885 59.396535 78.832848
2025-10-05 24.378329 28.494513 33.733760 41.181995 52.072397 68.598033 98.839057
2025-10-12 23.241922 27.443078 32.897482 40.855592 52.919902 72.201915 110.608514
2025-10-19 22.537326 26.888513 32.654480 41.300774 54.932947 78.038624 129.056840
2025-10-26 22.174093 26.748863 32.946025 42.523250 58.311424 87.011878 159.500208
2025-11-02 21.529077 26.176698 32.573398 42.681013 59.916927 93.043984 187.161175
2025-11-09 20.500036 25.017132 31.280521 41.282064 58.617662 92.872676 196.492760
2025-11-16 19.549834 23.925480 30.027859 39.852836 57.103813 91.962311 203.130741
2025-11-23 19.255531 23.738807 30.085601 40.527178 59.504386 100.287630 252.562735
2025-11-30 18.406265 22.825293 29.156989 39.759237 59.593026 104.574338 300.722193
2025-12-07 17.638602 21.997938 28.317882 39.086565 59.827493 109.605560 371.024078
2025-12-14 16.744110 20.938349 27.052831 37.558613 58.081735 108.755226 404.130849
2025-12-21 16.208815 20.375002 26.515017 37.239842 58.795019 115.243809 536.666484
2025-12-28 16.239583 20.640334 27.278405 39.296632 65.049992 142.862282 1618.373965
2026-01-04 15.774995 20.139196 26.784498 38.995840 65.891466 152.723926 4113.197981
2026-01-11 15.485889 19.887979 26.676495 39.406054 68.539013 172.325030 NaN
2026-01-18 15.348399 19.859007 26.927261 40.531136 73.294550 208.011476 NaN
2026-01-25 15.043844 19.556000 26.698420 40.676184 75.494094 234.358135 NaN
2026-02-01 14.513155 18.880020 25.803498 39.388819 73.414007 231.419713 NaN
2026-02-08 14.004806 18.224499 24.919252 38.070865 71.087713 225.598062 NaN